CHINA’S GROWTH FORECAST REMAINS OPTIMISTIC FOR Q3 2018

Press Release: Shanghai 07/04/2018

  • Trade growth mainly due to strong air and ocean trade
  • Key growth sectors include Land Vehicles & Parts, Temperature Control, Capital Equipment & Machinery as well as Chemicals & Products

China’s strong air and ocean trade will drive the country’s overall trade growth once again in the coming quarter, according to data from the DHL Global Trade Barometer released by DHL, the world’s leading logistics company. The country’s overall index has increased to 63 points, from 61 points in the last quarter.

The DHL Global Trade Barometer, an early indicator of global trade developments calculated using Artificial Intelligence and Big Data, shows that air imports are expected to be driven by Temperature or Climate Controlled Goods, Basic Raw Materials, Machinery Parts and Capital Equipment while air exports are buoyed by trade in Machinery Parts and Consumer Fashion Goods. Ocean trade growth is predicted to reach 58 points, with Personal & Household Goods continuing to dominate on the export front.

“We’re beginning to see the effects of China’s economic transition towards more value-added industries like technology and automotive production, even as trade continues for raw materials necessary to their manufacture,” said Steve Huang, CEO, DHL Global Forwarding Greater China. 

“China’s status as a technology innovator in its own right is continuing to gain momentum, powering its export growth for the second half of the year. The domestic appetite for consumer technology also continues to fuel trade for the country, with integrated circuit imports accounting for nearly 15 percent of imports in the first four months of 20181.  Despite potential softening in some industries, we expect China’s growth to remain stable as it pursues new trade opportunities along the Belt and Road while continuing to invest heavily in local manufacturing of increasingly innovative products.”

The DHL Global Trade Barometer’s results also suggest that Asia Pacific is expected to uplift global trade growth in the coming quarter, mainly driven by optimistic outlook for China, India and South Korea. Additionally, Japan continues to maintain relatively high rankings on the index with promising forecast for the coming months. Strong growth in ocean freight across Asia Pacific, coupled with steady or rising air freight traffic in the region’s leading economies, is testament to the Asian economy’s growth especially in the areas of technology. 

Developed jointly by DHL and Accenture, the DHL Global Trade Barometer provides a quarterly outlook on future trade, taking into consideration the import and export data of seven large economies: China, South Korea, Germany, India, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Together, these countries account for 75 percent of world trade, making their aggregated data an effective bellwether for near-term predictions on global trade. The DHL Global Trade Barometer, which assesses commodities that serve as the basis for further industrial production, predicts that global trade will continue to grow in the next three months, despite slight losses in momentum.

 

1 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-trade/chinas-april-exports-bounce-back-more-than-expected-despite-u-s-trade-brawl-idUSKBN1I909P